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In einem Forschungsvorhaben zur "Fiskalischen Dezentralisierung im Sudan am Beispiel des Bundesstaates Al Gadarif" wird in den kommenden Monaten (Juni bis September 2014) von einem Gastwissenschaftler aus dem Sudan, Sharif Ismail M. Bongo von der University of Gadarif, untersucht werden, welche Möglichkeiten es gibt, die vertikalen und horizontalen fiskalischen Ungleichgewichte im föderalen System des Sudan zu reduzieren. Sowohl die vertikalen Ungleichgewichte in der Finanzausstattung (zwischen der föderalen Regierung in Khartum, dem Staat Al Gadarif und den lokalen Verwaltungseinheiten des Staates) als auch die horizontalen Ungleichgewichte in der Finanzausstattung (zwischen den siebzehn Bundesstaaten des Sudan und zwischen den zwölf Provinzen des Staates Al Gadarif) werden in diesem Forschungsvorhaben untersucht. Diese Ungleichgewichte sind in höchstem Masse entwicklungshemmend und führen zu Konflikten zwischen den Bevölkerungsgruppen und zwischen den Teilstaaten und Verwaltungseinheiten.
Der Aufenthalt des Gastwissenschaftlers an der Universität Bremen wird vom DAAD finanziert; die Betreuung und Beratung hat Professor Dr. Karl Wohlmuth übernommen, der seit den 80er Jahren Stipendiaten aus dem Sudan berät. Im Rahmen des viermonatigen Forschungsaufenthaltes werden von Herrn Sharif auch Vorträge und Seminare zu dem Thema abgehalten. Ein Bericht für die Sudan-Studienreihe SERG Discussion Papers Nummer 42 (Link: http://www.iwim.uni-bremen.de/publikationen/pub-sudan.htm ) ist zum Thema "Fiscal Decentralization in Gadarif State: Did it Realize the Promise?" in Vorbereitung.
Herr Sharif hat kürzlich bei der 4th Annual Conference on "Structural Reform, Transformation, and Sustainable Development in Post-Secession Sudan: Economic, Political, and Social Perspectives" zum Thema "Restructuring Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations to Enhance Growth and Development in Post-Secession Sudan" vorgetragen. Auch bei der vorhergehenden 3. Konferenz hat Herr Sharif einen Vortrag gehalten. Diese Konferenzen werden organisiert von der Faculty of Economic and Social Studies, University of Khartoum, dem Sudan Ministry of Finance and National Economy und der World Bank. Die Konferenz (April 21 - 22, 2014, Conference Venue: Shariqa Hall, University of Khartoum) wird jeweils auch mit einem Ergebnisbericht abgeschlossen, der für die Politikreform im Sudan wichtig ist (vgl. zur Konferenz Programme and Call for Papers in englischer und arabischer Sprache, mit den Links http://www.iwim.uni-bremen.de/files/dateien/1592_conference_theme_2014_eng.pdf und http://www.iwim.uni-bremen.de/files/dateien/1593_conference_theme_2014_ara.pdf ). Der Ergebnisbericht der 3rd Annual Conference mit den Empfehlungen für die Politik liegt in englischer und arabischer Sprache vor (Link: http://www.iwim.uni-bremen.de/files/dateien/1594_fess_annual_conference_booklet_2013.pdf).
Im Rahmen der Sudan-/Südsudan-Forschung in Bremen stehen Themen der Implementierung nachhaltiger Wirtschaftsreformen im Vordergrund (vgl. den Kurzbericht von Professor Wohlmuth mit dem Link: http://www.iwim.uni-bremen.de/files/dateien/1595_nachhaltige_wirtschaftsreformen_im_sudan.pdf und die aktuelle Studie für die SERG-Reihe mit dem Link http://www.iwim.uni-bremen.de/files/dateien/1533_wohlmuth_serg_41.pdf ).
In Volume 17 of the African Development Perspectives Yearbook with the title Macroeconomic Policy Formation in Africa – Country Cases the Editors took up the event of the Independence of the Republic of South Sudan on July 9, 2011 and the recent developments which have occurred since in Sudan and in South Sudan and between these two countries to publish a special Unit as part of the Yearbook. This Unit 1 on New Economic Policies for Sudan and South Sudan - The Need for a Strategic Economic Cooperation has three chapters and highlights the need for new macroeconomic strategies and policies in Sudan and South Sudan embedded in a new political environment; there is also a focus on the many political and economic interdependencies between these two countries, especially in the border areas between Sudan and South Sudan.
The Editors were enthusiastically supported in this endeavor by research groups from the two countries. The authors of this Unit 1 are convinced that new macroeconomic policies (supported by medium-term and long-term development strategies) and a strategic economic and political co-operation between the two countries (based on visions of sustainable growth in the border areas) are necessary. So far, the political processes and the attitudes of the elites in these two countries show that the lessons from the many decades of conflict between and within these two countries were not learned. The civil war inside the South Sudan since December 2013 and the continuing conflicts in major regions of Sudan make millions of people in both countries suffering. While the data from the most recent National Baseline Household Survey of 2009 revealed high levels of poverty in both countries (see Graph 1 and Graph 2), it can be expected that income poverty and other dimensions of poverty in both countries have further worsened in the last years.
Graph 1: Poverty in the States of South Sudan (in % of the Population of these States)
Source: World Bank - Analysis of the Data of the National Baseline Household Survey/NBHS of 2009 by World Bank
Graph 2: Poverty in the States of Sudan (in % of the Population of these States)
Source: World Bank - Analysis of the Data of the National Baseline Household Survey/NBHS of 2009 by World Bank
Volume 17 of the African Development Perspectives Yearbook contains as well a Unit 2 on Macroeconomic Policies in West Africa. Researchers from academic institutions in Nigeria and Senegal, and from WAMA (West African Monetary Agency) and WAMI (West African Monetary Institute) have contributed to this important Unit with four chapters. In order to compare and to contrast the established CFA-based WAEMU (West African Economic and Monetary Union) integration process with the newly established WAMZ (West African Monetary Zone) integration process, Senegal was included as a country case for the CFA Zone. In Unit 3 of Volume 17 a great number of book reviews and book notes is presented and so this Unit 3 is a valuable source of information on new books, journal issues, documents and research papers with a focus on macroeconomic policy formation in Africa. Volume 17 is complementary to Volume 16 on Macroeconomic Policy Formation in Africa – General Issues which was published already in 2013.
Because of the great number of high-quality submissions of papers for Volume 18 on Africa’s Progress in Regional and Global Economic Integration the International Call for Papers for this volume is closed now (but submissions of papers on successfully and competitively exporting African companies and on global and regional value chains led by African firms are still accepted).
Every day new lists of "African Lions", "African Tigers", and "African Growth Champions" run through the international press and give the impression of a booming continent. The meaning is that these countries have exorbitant growth rates, huge growth potentials, large investment opportunities, and rich labour and human resources as assets for future development. However, these growth opportunities can only be used when qualified staff is available so that human resources development is key for African firms moving up the "globalization ladder" and for German firms being active in Africa. Because of the "mismatch" in African tertiary education systems (enrolments and graduations do not correspond to the needs of the major employment sectors) new approaches are needed to fill the gaps in human resources at country and firm levels. So, newly designed and innovative models of qualifying and recruiting staff are needed.
Based on a critical assessment of the views of international consulting companies on African business opportunities Professor Karl Wohlmuth gave a presentation at a meeting of Afrika-Verein der deutschen Wirtschaft e. V. in association with the Jacobs University (Link: Programme). Economics Professor Karl Wohlmuth emphasized in his presentation four issues (Link: Presentation):
First, New Business Areas and New Consumer Classes in Africa The Development Model determines the Structure and Demand of Qualified Staff
Second, Dynamic Development of African Enterprises and Entrepreneurship The Stage of Globalisation determines the Structure and Demand of Qualified Staff
Third, Diverging Demographic Developments in Africa The Objectives of Employment Generation and Entrepreneurship Development will determine the Structure and Demand of Qualified Staff
Fourth, Innovative Models of Qualifying and Recruiting Staff in and for Africa
It was shown that only 13 countries in Africa have some characteristics of "inclusive growth", as revealed by looking at ten important human development, competitiveness, governance, technology and economic performance indexes. Only countries with characteristics of "inclusive growth" can anticipate a broad development of formalized small and medium sized companies, thereby solving employment and social cohesion problems and building a pool for entrepreneurs and qualified staff for the further growth of firms and businesses in size and in number. It was as well shown that there is a very divergent landscape of companies in Africa. While some few firms are "African Challengers" moving quickly up the "globalization ladder", the basic conditions for the growth of formalized small and medium sized companies are missing in many African countries. Also, the "demographic dividend" can only be captured in African countries where the tertiary education systems are drastically reformed, where the "demographic transition" takes place and allows for saving, consumption and wealth generation, and where stable employment is created in key employment sectors so as to absorb the growing labour force. These three conditions are present only in few African countries. Therefore, innovative models for qualifying and recruiting staff are needed by German firms so as to benefit from the emerging business opportunities in Africa. These firms can overcome staff shortages by cooperating with African firms and entrepreneurship networks, with African universities and research institutions, and with African initiators and executors of development projects.
These issues are discussed in greater detail by Professor Karl Wohlmuth in an essay on "African Lions, African Tigers, and Emerging African Middle Classes How the International Consulting Business looks at Africa". This essay will be published in IWIM's Blue Series Discussion Papers (Link: IWIM Blue Series Discussion Papers).
A Comprehensive Transformation Process has to start NOW in Ukraine – How to Speed Up Structural Transformation by Deep Societal and Economic Reforms?
Are the current problems in Ukraine due to ethnic and political tensions, or due to delays in political and economic reforms, or are the causes of the problems much deeper rooted? In a new study on the Axiological Foundations In The Management Of Socio-Economic Development Of Ukraine two researchers from Ukraine - Dr Vitaliy Krupin, Senior Researcher, Doctor of Economics, and Yuriy Zlydnyk, Ph.D. Candidate, both from the Institute of Regional Researches of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Lviv, Ukraine – present their views on the root causes of the problems and on steps towards inclusive, effective and comprehensive structural transformation processes in Ukraine.
After reviewing the socioeconomic characteristics and trends of the Ukraine, the authors highlight the problems of socio-economic development in the context of axiological principles, emphasizing spiritual values and ethical foundations in the Ukrainian society. Ethical norms and value systems have to be studied in order to understand the root problems in the Ukraine of our days. Such problems, as manifested by large-scale corruption, chaotic development processes, unorganized state actions and other failures and deviations in society, can only be overcome – according to the authors - by reforms based on axiological principles. Individual conduct and responsibility of the individual for his/her actions have therefore to be investigated in the context of the ongoing transformation and reform processes in Ukraine.
The axiological foundations for managing socio-economic development processes in the Ukraine were so far not considered as important topics in the researches on the transformation process in Ukraine. The two authors emphasize this aspect as crucial for effective further steps towards inclusive transformation processes. Analyzing the socio-economic indicators since the independence of Ukraine and the results of various corruption indices and barometers for Ukraine the extent of the societal and economic problems becomes obvious. The example of small business activity in Ukraine is presented as a case in point. The authors write that declaratively, small businesses are under minimal state control, but in reality, there are almost 40 different state authorities with rights to check and to suspend any activity of a business, inviting corrupt practices and so leading to widespread informal activities. But, as spiritual values of the people are at the root of these socio economic development problems, all reform policies to initiate a business-friendly environment and to fight corruption and other failures in the development process have to be guided by measures to overcome the lack of formed spiritual values. Informational measures and educational programs are recommended along with deep societal and economic reforms.
Professor Karl Wohlmuth has advised and supported the Research Group from the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine in Lviv during the final phase of researches. The cooperation between Bremen and Lviv will be continued. The paper will be published in Issue 2, 2014 of “Berichte”, the journal of IWIM’s partner institute in Berlin (Forschungsinstitut der IWVWW e. V.).
A New Macroeconomic Strategy For Africa is presented in Volume 16 of the African Development Perspectives Yearbook. The New Macroeconomic Strategy For Africa focusses on employment-targeting by considering the policy space for more facilitating fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policies. The New Strategy emphasizes also the vulnerability to (external and internal) shocks and the resilience factors so as to cope successfully with these shocks. As well the New Strategy considers those elements of macroeconomic policies which support inclusive and sustainable growth. Also, the New Strategy requests the adaptation of macroeconomic policies to the specific levels of economic governance and economic globalization of the country in question. Last, but not least, in the New Strategy institutional factors, such as the better cooperation of the three poles of macroeconomic policy-making (Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Planning, Central Bank), are taken into account.
Volume 16 also presents an analysis of the economics of the Arab Spring countries. However the political developments in the Arab Spring countries will develop, the need for sustainable macroeconomic policies and for inclusive growth policies is evident. The economics of the Arab Spring countries reveals that - despite of considerable economic growth prior to the Arab Spring events inadequate employment growth, slow human capital accumulation, and a highly restricted access to economic opportunities are among the major causes of the "Arab Spring" uprisings. There is more need for employment targeting in macroeconomic policies, for macroeconomic policies emphasizing inclusive growth policies, and for considering vulnerability and resilience factors, economic governance and economic globalization trends, and institutional reforms regarding the key macroeconomic policy-making institutions.
A Companion Volume 17 of the African Development Perspectives Yearbook will report on country cases (Nigeria, Senegal, Sudan, South Sudan) and on ECOWAS/WAMZ regional economic and monetary integration issues. Volume 17 is also expected in 2014.
The New Volume: Order your copy at LIT (Link: http://www.lit-verlag.de/london/ )
The African Development Perspectives Yearbook The Flagship Publication of IWIM
The African Development Perspectives Yearbook is released since 1989 by the Research Group on African Development Perspectives. Over the years the Yearbook became the major English-language Annual on African Development in Germany. Volumes 16 and 17 were supported with contributions also by staff from ILO/Geneva, UNESCWA/Beirut and UNDP/Cairo, by research institutions in Egypt and by ECOWAS/WAMZ/WAMI/Freetown staff in West Africa. The Managing Editor (Dr. T. Knedlik, IWH Halle) and the Volume Editor (Professor Karl Wohlmuth, University of Bremen) prepare now Volume 18 of the Yearbook for the year 2015 with the title "Africa's Progress towards Regional and Global Economic Integration". The Call for Papers for Volume 18 is still open (Call for Papers Volume 18: PDF). See more about the Yearbook Project ( http://www.iwim.uni-bremen.de/africa/about.htm ).
Die neue Studie von Professor Karl Wohlmuth über umfassende und nachhaltige Wirtschaftsreformen im Sudan und im Süd-Sudan ist soeben in der Reihe SERG (Sudan Economy Research Group) Discussion Papers erschienen (vgl. den Link zu den SERG Discussion Papers).
The new study by Professor Karl Wohlmuth about comprehensive and sustainable economic reforms in Sudan and South Sudan has just been published in the SERG (Sudan Economy Research Group) Discussion Paper Series (see the link to the SERG Discussion Papers).
Welchen Beitrag können umfassende und nachhaltige Wirtschaftsreformen für die politische und ökonomische Stabilisierung im Sudan und im Süd-Sudan erbringen? Diese Fragen werden in einer neuen Studie von Professor Karl Wohlmuth mit dem Titel Sudan und Süd-Sudan Programme für nachhaltige Wirtschaftsreformen untersucht. Die Studie erscheint in den SERG (Sudan Economy Research Group) Discussion Papers als Nummer 41 (vgl. dazu den Link zur: SERG Reihe). Der Beitrag von Professor Karl Wohlmuth geht von der zentralen These aus, dass zunehmende horizontale Ungleichheiten (zwischen den Regionen) und vertikale Ungleichheiten (zwischen den Einkommensschichten) kumulativ wirken und immer wieder neue Konflikte, Instabilitäten und Wachstums- und Entwicklungshemmnisse in den beiden Ländern hervorrufen. Die Wirtschaftsreformvorschläge des Professors in fünf zentralen Bereichen basieren auf diesen Einschätzungen und beziehen relevante Trends und Szenarien ein. Mehr über die Studie von Professor Karl Wohlmuth
Eine erweiterte Fassung des Essays von Professor Karl Wohlmuth "Back to John Maynard Keynes in Regulating International Commodity Markets" ist jetzt als Nummer 125 in der Blauen Reihe des IWIM erschienen (Link: Blaue Reihe des IWIM). Der Bremer Professor analysiert die Grenzen der "Transparenz-Agenda" und verweist auf die Notwendigkeit, ernsthaft über eine "Strukturreform-Agenda" nachzudenken. Die "Transparenz-Agenda" basiert auf einer Vielzahl von freiwilligen Vereinbarungen und Absichtserklärungen und einigen Gesetzesinitiativen, vor allem in den USA und der EU, für die Verbesserung der Transparenz auf spezifischen Rohstoffmärkten. In dem Beitrag wird auch auf die Vorschläge von John Maynard Keynes für die Organisation der internationalen Rohstoffmärkte eingegangen, um dann deren Bedeutung für die heute anstehenden Diskussionen zur Global Governance der internationalen Rohstoffmärkte zu erläutern. Es ist vorgesehen, die "Strukturreform-Agenda" in einem weiteren Beitrag zu vertiefen.
An extended version of the Essay written by Professor Karl Wohlmuth with the title "Back to John Maynard Keynes in Regulating International Commodity Markets" has just appeared as number 125 in the Blue Series Discussion Papers of IWIM (Link: Blue Series Discussion Papers of IWIM). Economics Professor Karl Wohlmuth analyzes the "Transparency Agenda" and refers also to the necessity to discuss a "Structural Reform Agenda". The "Transparency Agenda" is based on a great number of voluntary agreements and declarations of intent, but also on some legal frameworks in the USA and the European Union (EU) to improve transparency with regard of some specific raw materials markets. In this Essay the recommendations by John Maynard Keynes for a global governance of the international raw materials markets are discussed as well, and their relevance for the current discussion is assessed. In a further paper the "Structural Reform Agenda" will be analyzed in greater detail.