Reconstructing Governance Sudan/Süd-Sudan
This is the title of Unit Three for the forthcoming volume of the African Development Perspectives Yearbook with the title "Macroeconomic Policy Formation in Africa". The Editors of the Yearbook took the event of South Sudan's Independence on July 9, 2011 as an obligation to plan for a whole Unit on the Sudan and the South Sudan for the new volume of the Yearbook. As the separation of the South is of tremendous importance not only for the two countries Sudan and South Sudan but also for the whole continent of Africa, the Editors have invited leading researchers from the University of Khartoum, the University of Kassala (both in the North) and the University of Juba (in the South) to write on the macroeconomic policies and the macroeconomic policy formation processes of the two countries. Dr. Dirk Hansohm, Macroeconomic Advisory Services Nairobi, Kenya, currently working as a consultant in Khartoum, a former member and collaborator of the Sudan Economy Research Group (SERG) at the University of Bremen, also has contributed to the Unit Three. While the essay on the Sudan considers the macroeconomic consequences of the secession of the South, based on an analysis of the major economic problems and shocks of Sudan since the 1970s, the essay on the South Sudan concentrates on establishing fiscal planning and building fiscal management as cornerstones of macroeconomic stability. Macroeconomic aspects of the two countries are considered by all the authors with having a longer run view in mind (see the Synopsis of the new volume of the African Development Perspectives Yearbook).
The Unit Three is also a contribution to the understanding of the economics of post-conflict countries in Africa. It came out from the two papers that despite of quite different endowments and initial conditions the two countries have to pursue similar economic policies so as to strengthen the weak economic policy institutions, to redirect production and exports towards diversification, to lay the foundations for macroeconomic stability and fiscal decentralization, and to establish basic social policy systems. As well the huge defense sector in both countries has to be scaled down because of the fiscal burden and the diversion of resources from productive activities, especially agriculture and manufacturing. The abundant natural resources in the two countries could be used more fully by appropriate strategies. New economic strategies and macroeconomic policies have to be based fully on a medium to long-term planning approach, and growth and employment diagnostics approaches are recommended to enhance local development. Professor Karl Wohlmuth introduced the Unit with an essay on New Economic Policies for Sudan and South Sudan and the Need for a Strategic Economic Cooperation. Five elements of a new macroeconomic policy framework were outlined for the two countries, and the contours of a Border States Development Programme (BSDP) were discussed. Such a programme should guide the development of the now eleven states in the North and in the South along the international border between Sudan and South Sudan. This programme would allow it to develop the abundant natural resources in the area to the benefit of the people in both countries.
Im Rahmen der Vortragsreihe "Vom Sudan nach Namibia", organisiert vom Rektorat und dem International Office der Universität Bremen in Verbindung mit Institutionen der Entwicklungszusammenarbeit in Bremen, hielt Professor Karl Wohlmuth einen Vortrag über "Sudan und Süd-Sudan: Vom Konflikt zur Kooperation?. Frau Prof. Dr. Yasemin Karakasoglu, Konrektorin für Interkulturalität und Internationalität, eröffnete den Vortragsabend. Der Professor ging zunächst auf die Phasen des Sudanprojektes an der Universität Bremen (Sudanforschungsgruppe Bremen) seit den 70er Jahren bis zur Gegenwart ein und analysierte dann die Ursachen der Konflikte zwischen dem Sudan und dem Süd-Sudan. Auf Möglichkeiten und Chancen einer zukünftigen Kooperation der beiden Länder wurde eingegangen.
Im Vortrag wurden fünf Themen behandelt: Erstens, die Konflikte im Sudan: Ursachen, Einflussfaktoren, Perioden; zweitens, das sudanesische Wachstumsmodell und die Konflikte; drittens, die Geographie, Intensität und Dynamik der Konflikte im Sudan/Süd-Sudan; viertens, Ansätze für eine Lösung der Konflikte durch eine grundlegend neue Wirtschafts- und Sozialpolitik; und fünftens, Ansätze für eine Lösung der Konflikte durch eine strategische ökonomische Kooperation zwischen Sudan und Süd-Sudan. Eine lebhafte Diskussion über die Thesen des Bremer Sudanforschers schloss sich an den Vortrag an. Die Präsentation wird auf Grund des bekundeten Interesses nun einer breiteren Öffentlichkeit zugänglich gemacht (Link: PDF Präsentation). Ein Draft Paper zum Vortrag und Aufsätze des Referenten zu den behandelten Themen liegen vor (vgl. Publikationen von Karl Wohlmuth). Über diese Themen wird im Rahmen der Sudanforschungsgruppe der Universität Bremen in den kommenden Jahren weiter gearbeitet (Link: Sudanforschungsgruppe).
Die Universität Bremen dokumentiert ihre Zusammenarbeit mit afrikanischen universitären Partnern im Rahmen von Ausstellungen und einer Vortragsreihe vom 30. April 28. Mai 2013 im DGB-Haus am Hauptbahnhof (vgl. den Flyer zu der Veranstaltung: http://www.uni-bremen.de/fileadmin/user_upload/international/Aktuelles/IO_Vom_Sudan_nach_Namibia_Flyer_20130318_RZ.pdf ).
Sowohl die Kooperation von Wissenschaftlern der Universität Bremen mit Namibia als auch jene mit dem Sudan währt nun schon über 35 Jahre. In der Zwischenzeit sind zahlreiche weitere Kooperationen mit Afrika dazugekommen und prägen Lehre und Forschung der Exzellenzuniversität.
Professor Karl Wohlmuth wird am 28. Mai 2013 zum Thema "Sudan und Süd-Sudan: Vom Konflikt zur Kooperation" einen Vortrag halten (vgl. Synopse unter: http://www.uni-bremen.de/international/profil-international/aktuelles-und-berichte/aktuelles/vom-sudan-nach-namibia.html). Berichtet wird über die Projekte der Zusammenarbeit mit dem Sudan und über die aktuellen Forschungen zu den Entwicklungen nach der Unabhängigkeitserklärung des Süd-Sudan vom 9. Juli 2011 (vgl. dazu ausführlich: http://www.iwim.uni-bremen.de/EconomicPoliciesInSudan.htm und http://www.iwim.uni-bremen.de/forschung/forsch-sudan.htm ).
Die Veranstaltung wird am 30. April 2013 von Frau Prof. Dr. Yasemin Karakasoglu, Konrektorin für Interkulturalität und Internationalität, und von S. E. Neville Gertze, Botschafter der Republik Namibia, feierlich eröffnet. Prof. Dr. Manfred Hinz hält den Eröffnungsvortrag.
In dem neuen Forschungsbericht Sudan Economy Research Group Discussion Papers Number 40 analysiert Professor Karl Wohlmuth die zukünftigen Kooperationsmöglichkeiten und Kooperationsnotwendigkeiten zwischen Sudan und Süd-Sudan. Der Forschungsbericht basiert auf der Keynote Lecture, die Professor Karl Wohlmuth bei der International Sudan and South Sudan Studies Conference 2012 an der Universität Bonn gehalten hat. Das dort vorgelegte Paper wurde für die SERG-Reihe überarbeitet und aktualisiert (Link: http://www.iwim.uni-bremen.de/publikationen/pub-sudan.htm ).
In the new research report Sudan Economy Research Group Discussion Papers Number 40 Professor Karl Wohlmuth analyses the future of economic cooperation between Sudan and South Sudan. The report is based on the Keynote Lecture at the International Sudan and South Sudan Studies Conference 2012 at the University of Bonn. The Report is an extension and update of the former paper presented at the conference (Link: http://www.iwim.uni-bremen.de/publikationen/pub-sudan.htm ).
Nicht nur im "Handbuch Sozialpolitiken der Welt", sondern auch im Band "Sozialpolitik in Entwicklungsländern" ist der Bremer Wirtschaftsprofessor Karl Wohlmuth mit einem Beitrag über die Sozialpolitik in den Republiken Sudan und Süd-Sudan vertreten. Die besondere Bedeutung dieses Bandes ergibt sich aus der Tatsache, dass die Sozialpolitik zu einem wichtigen Prüfkriterium für die Entwicklungszusammenarbeit, insbesondere auch der Europäischen Union, geworden ist (vgl. Publikationen Karl Wohlmuth).
Der zweite European Report on Development (ERD) für das Jahr 2010 hat den Titel "Social protection for inclusive development - a new perspective in EU co-operation with Africa" (vgl. Link: http://erd.eui.eu/erd-2010/final-report/). In der Zwischenzeit liegt der vierte ERD vor (vgl. Link: http://www.erd-report.eu/erd/index.html) und thematisiert ebenfalls Fragen der Entwicklungszusammenarbeit, und zwar mit dem Fokus auf die Post-2015 Global Agenda.
Zudem wird das Thema der Sozialpolitik für die Entwicklungszusammenarbeit und für die nationale Politik in Entwicklungsländern immer wichtiger, weil die Reaktion der Staaten auf die Weltfinanzkrise 2008/09 gezeigt hat, dass Entwicklungsländer mit einer aktiven Sozialpolitik Krisen schneller und besser überwinden können. Einkommens- und Beschäftigungsverluste sowie negative Folgen der Krise für Ernährung, Bildung und Gesundheit können eher bewältigt werden. Auch für die makroökonomische Steuerung ergeben sich Vorteile. Zudem wird die Politik der Armutsbekämpfung wesentlich effektiver, wenn grundlegende Elemente einer Sozialpolitik vorhanden sind und systematisch ausgebaut werden.
Sozialpolitik im Sudan und im Süd-Sudan, in:
Sozialpolitik in Entwicklungsländern - ein Handbuch, Berlin: LIT Verlag, 2013
(New Publication: Social Policies in Sudan and South Sudan,
in: Social Policies in Developing Economies - A Handbook, Berlin 2013)
Economic Policy for Peace, Development and Cooperation between Sudan and South Sudan:
This is the title of a paper proposed by Professor Karl Wohlmuth for the Annual Conference 2013 of the Graduate College and the Directorate of Scientific Research and Cultural Relations of the University of Khartoum, Republic of the Sudan. Professor Wohlmuth was invited to this event by the Graduate College and the Directorate of Scientific Research and Cultural Relations of the University of Khartoum. The theme of the conference is: "Towards a Confident Renaissance". The conference is held at the Friendship Hall in Khartoum and at the University of Khartoum-Main Campus.
The theme Economic Policy for Peace, Development and Cooperation between Sudan and South Sudan as submitted to the conference is based on the recent research work by Professor Karl Wohlmuth on Strategic Economic Cooperation between Sudan and South Sudan (see about the research program and the research output the link: http://www.iwim.uni-bremen.de/EconomicPoliciesInSudan.htm).
Researches on the Sudan at the University of Bremen have a long history dating back to the year 1978 (see the list of selected publications of the Sudan Economy Research Group/SERG with the link: http://www.iwim.uni-bremen.de/files/dateien/1535_serg_38_2_2011.pdf).
Soon after the conclusion of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement for Sudan (CPA) on January 9, 2005 the Research Project "Governance and Social Action in Sudan" started at IWIM, University of Bremen. It was directed by Professor Karl Wohlmuth and Dr. Elke Grawert. It was the purpose of the Project to follow up the process of transition after the CPA towards reconstruction of governance at various levels of decision-making, and thereby to analyze the conditions for development and a sustainable peace. A network of researchers from universities in Sudan, South Sudan, Kenya, Ethiopia and staff from IWIM, University of Bremen were involved. The Project was the first one approved in the context of the Volkswagen Foundation's new Sub-Saharan Africa Research Initiative, and it got generous support during two project phases (Links: http://www.iwim.uni-bremen.de/africa/Sudanforschung.htm and http://www.karl-wohlmuth.de/governance_and_social_action_in_sudan/Governance.htm). The Project had also a training component as PhD students and Master students were trained. By research workshops in Bremen and in all the other Project Countries the students were trained to do field research in and near the conflict areas (such as refugee camps, conflict areas, border areas, etc.).
Many publications were released by the project professors and by the project students. Considerable human capital was built and a future-oriented network of research partnerships has emerged. The trained young professionals are now starting their own research projects and use intensively the network that was established during these seven years of cooperative researches.
Now the Final Report to the Volkswagen Foundation was released by the Project Coordinator Dr. Elke Grawert. She is now Research Coordinator at the Bonn International Center for Conversion/BICC in Bonn. The Report will be released to the Public quite soon. Economics Professor Karl Wohlmuth from IWIM continues his researches on Sudan/South Sudan with a New Project on "Economic Cooperation between Sudan and South Sudan". There was a rather smooth process towards a Referendum on Independence of South Sudan on January 9, 2011 and towards the official Declaration of Independence of South Sudan on July 9, 2011. However, since these days the relations between the two states have deteriorated to the extent that now - over more than a year starting in January 2012 - the oil production in South Sudan had been stopped because of accusations of unfair treatment by the partner. The oil is produced near the international border in the South Sudan but the infrastructure of Sudan is needed for transport and processing towards export via Port Sudan. Both states now suffer from huge losses of public revenues and foreign exchange despite of the nine September 2012 agreements in Addis Ababa about all the open security, border and finance issues. A Strategic Economic Cooperation is needed between the two countries as the border regions of the two states are of extremely great economic importance for Sudan and South Sudan (Links: http://www.iwim.uni-bremen.de/EconomicPoliciesInSudan.htm and http://www.iwim.uni-bremen.de/forschung/forsch-sudan.htm).
This was the title of the plenary lecture given by Professor Karl Wohlmuth at the Sudan/South Sudan conference in Hermannsburg which took place from October 31-November 2, 2012 (Link Final Conference Programme). Professor Wohlmuth presented in his lecture five criteria for sound economies and sustainable economic policies in Sudan and South Sudan:
First, macroeconomic stability has to be provided. Because of the stop of oil production in January 2012 by the government of South Sudan the macroeconomic instability problems were even aggravated in both countries and they are still severe.
Second, a medium term public finance framework is needed for both countries, especially so because of the volatility of oil revenues and the low importance of non-oil exports. Such medium-term public finance frameworks are not in place, and there is no Permanent Fund/Permanent Income approach at work to smooth the expenditures from the oil revenues towards stabilization and long-term development objectives.
Third, a redirection of exports towards non-oil products is needed in both countries. However, the time since January 9, 2005 (Comprehensive Peace Agreement) was not used in the two countries for generating non-oil exports. Despite of the huge agricultural resources and the agro-industrial opportunities, both countries are large-scale food importers.
Fourth, effective social safety nets are needed to protect the poor and the poorest, but also the middle class which became impoverished in recent years, as the available rudimentary social safety systems have rather deteriorated. Public interventions in health and education sectors as well as towards the functioning of the labour market were highly inefficient and ineffective, and macroeconomic policies were not pro-poor.
Fifth, effective reductions of horizontal and vertical inequalities are requested but the reality in both states is that the regional imbalances and the income inequalities have rather increased. This has repercussions on political stability in both countries and on the perspectives of cooperation in the border-belt.
Professor Karl Wohlmuth at the opening of the Plenary Session on Economic Issues in Sudan and South Sudan
Professor Wohlmuth also commented on the Nine Agreements between the two countries from September 27, 2012 at Addis Ababa and on the future tasks to promote a strategic economic cooperation between Sudan and South Sudan. Five core programmes for a strategic economic cooperation were presented (see PDF Sudan-South Sudan-Conference Presentation). Other contributions to the Conference were made by the Chairman of the Anti-Corruption Commission in Juba, South Sudan on the fight against corruption in South Sudan, by the General Secretary of SPLM/N on the situation in Darfur, South Kordofan, Blue Nile, and Khartoum by highlighting the perspectives for peaceful solutions. The former head of UNMIS in Juba spoke on national and regional challenges for the two states and the role of outsiders. The current situation of Abyei area was considered by a Member of the South Sudan Parliament representing Abyei in Juba.
Professor Karl Wohlmuth, University of Bremen, Justice John Gatwech Lul, Chairman of the Anti-Corruption Commission, Juba, South Sudan, and Marina Peter, Sudan Focal Point Europe and Conference Chair in a Plenary Discussion on Corruption in Sudan and South Sudan
The conference was attended by around 120 participants, among others by representatives of the civil society of Sudan and South Sudan, by regional and international church organizations and NGOs, by government organizations and ambassadors of Sudan and South Sudan, by media people and researchers on Sudan, by members of the German parliament, by the donor community, and by representatives from the SPLM/N speaking for ethnic and disadvantaged groups in South Kordofan and Blue Nile States. The Conference Communique (see Communique Hermannsburg Conference) presents a call for peace, reconciliation and good neighbourliness. The communique emphasizes also: "To avoid new conflicts and ensure sustainable peace, natural resource management and equitable sharing of resources should be a top priority at all levels in society starting from the bottom-up. Oil is a key element, but a sound economy needs to be built on diversified sources of income. A strategic approach for economic relations between Sudan and South Sudan, with a special focus on the border areas, could help to safeguard peace and good neigbourliness. However, a prerequisite is to immediately address the needs of the people, and the end of armed conflicts."
This Sudan/South Sudan Conference was the 25th in Hermannsburg which was directed by Marina Peter and Hermann Hartmann (see the leaflet informing about these 25 conferences: Leaflet Hermannsburg Conferences).
25 Years of Sudan Conferences in Hermannsburg, Lower Saxony:
The 25th Sudan /South Sudan Conference will be held October 31 - November 2, 2012. Leading personalities from Sudan and South Sudan will attend the conference to exchange views on the current situation and to discuss strategies to create conditions of lasting peace and to provide preconditions for economic development and mutually beneficial cooperation.
Since 1987 every year an international Sudan Conference was held in Hermannsburg, organized by the Sudan Forum e. V. and the Sudan Focal Point Europa. The open exchange of views in Hermannsburg between Sudan Government representatives and SPLM representatives has since 1987 contributed to the process that ultimately led to the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) of January 9, 2005. Now the new problems between Sudan and South Sudan have to be addressed – the still open separation issues and the unsolved CPA issues. Although nine agreements between the two countries were signed on September 27, 2012 in Addis Ababa, major issues are still open. Also the implementation of the nine agreements has to get started.
This year the conference is sponsored by Brot für die Welt and by Misereor. Main topics of the Sudan/South Sudan Conference 2012 are the preconditions of lasting peace and the recognition of the rights of the people, the moves towards sound economic policies in the two countries and a strategic economic cooperation between Sudan and South Sudan, and the ways to overcome the conflicts in Abyei, Darfur, South Kordofan, Blue Nile, and in other areas of the two countries (Link to Programme).